Black Swan | The Life Well Lived

2. In the The Black Swan, Talebin tells of a thought exercise which I think may shed some light on another cause of our difficulty “Knowing MS.”

When asked which I have better knowledge of, the future or the past, I answered the past because I cannot accurately predict the future. Who can? For the purpose of the exercise, imagine a cube of ice placed on a kitchen counter. If left alone for 2 hours, what will the cube look like? Now imagine an intricately carved miniature ice sculpture of a swan made from the same amount of water as the ice cube. If left alone on the counter for 2 hours, what will it look like? I feel fairly confident in my ability to predict the future in this scenario.

Now I imagine coming home from work and finding a small puddle on my kitchen counter. How can I tell the shape of the ice which made the puddle? My ability to recreate the narrative describing how the puddle came to be accurately enough to tell the shape of the ice is severely limited. I will take this one step further. There is no puddle on the counter. However, I can not answer the question to describe why the sponge is wet? My ability to know the past is horrible.

Multiple Sclerosis means more than one cut. With only this information describing MS, is the determination of cause an easier task than coming home and answering the question of why my sponge is wet?

Beginning of Post: http://thelifewelllived.net/2013/11/26/problems-with-our-approach-to-knowledge-of-ms-origins-part-1/

Thought 2: http://thelifewelllived.net/2013/11/26/problems-with-our-approach-to-knowledge-of-ms-origins-part-2/

Thought 3: http://thelifewelllived.net/2013/11/26/problems-with-our-approach-to-knowledge-of-ms-origins-part-3/

Conclusion: http://thelifewelllived.net/2013/11/26/problems-with-our-approach-to-knowledge-of-ms-origins-conclusion/

So often our problem solving approach follows the path of 1) have problem to 2) define problem to 3) find origin to 4) prevent origin to finally 5) the problem is solved. I think our current approach is stuck at point 2 and then again at 3 when we attempt to skip point 2.

As I continue listening to The Black Swan, The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Talebin my car, I am struck by three implications of his logic to the question of researching the origins of MS. I think some of his logic could help explain our difficulty in defining MS’s origins.

1. My starting point prior to hearing the book is questioning why we define MS as one disease. It is a diagnosis of exclusion. I was diagnosed after cancer, various sexually transmitted diseases, Lymes disease and a host of other possible diagnosis were ruled out. It was not A, B or C. Therefor it must be D. It could not be any other letter, number, symbol, or yet to be discovered combination of the above. It is “D.”

“MS” progresses at different rates, impacts different parts of our nervous systems, and responds differently to different drugs. Yet despite all of these differences, we assume it is option “D” which in this case is MS.

This insistence of lumping a potential host of possible diseases and conditions under one flag may be part of the problem when it comes to looking for a single cause or origin of MS.

Thought 2: http://thelifewelllived.net/2013/11/26/problems-with-our-approach-to-knowledge-of-ms-origins-part-2/

Thought 3: http://thelifewelllived.net/2013/11/26/problems-with-our-approach-to-knowledge-of-ms-origins-part-3/

Conclusion: http://thelifewelllived.net/2013/11/26/problems-with-our-approach-to-knowledge-of-ms-origins-conclusion/

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Problems With Our Approach to Knowledge of MS Origins (part 2)

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Problems With Our Approach to Knowledge of MS Origins (part 1)

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