Problems With Our Approach to Knowledge of MS Origins (part 2)

Help!  I'm Melting!
Help! I’m Melting!

2. In the The Black Swan, Talebin tells of a thought exercise which I think may shed some light on another cause of our difficulty “Knowing MS.”

When asked which I have better knowledge of, the future or the past, I answered the past because I cannot accurately predict the future.  Who can? For the purpose of the exercise, imagine a cube of ice placed on a kitchen counter.   If left alone for 2 hours, what will the cube look like?  Now imagine an intricately carved miniature ice sculpture of a swan made from the same amount of water as the ice cube.  If left alone on the counter for 2 hours, what will it look like?  I feel fairly confident in my ability to predict the future in this scenario.

Now I imagine coming home from work and finding a small puddle on my kitchen counter.  How can I tell the shape of the ice which made the puddle?  My ability to recreate the narrative describing how the puddle came to be accurately enough to tell the shape of the ice is severely limited.  I will take this one step further.  There is no puddle on the counter.  However, I can not answer the question to describe why the sponge is wet?  My ability to know the past is horrible.

Multiple Sclerosis means more than one cut.  With only this information describing MS, is the determination of cause an easier task than coming home and answering the question of why my sponge is wet?

Beginning of Post:

Thought 2:

Thought 3:



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