Category Archives: correlation

Hot Summer Days and Icecream

When I was in Psychology 101, we learned about the difference between causation and correlation. I think of this now because of the story used to illustrate the difference. It seems there is a strong correlation in NY city between ice cream sales and murders. As ice cream sales go up, the rate of murders per day also go up. Nobody seems to believe buying ice cream causes murders despite the old saying of “we all scream for ice cream.” Simply put, more people are out and about interacting when it’s not well below freezing. For what it is worth the temperature is well correlated with both numbers as well.

This story comes to mind because we have hit a hot spell and with it have come all the tempers and misbehaviors of overheating and dehydration. It got to the point where A was not going to be allowed to go on a pirate ship camp outing unless a parent attended too. I guess maybe some would have been angrier than I was, but in truth, it was fun to go interact with my kids in a school setting and see how the school personas behave. It is very different from home. Watching them excitedly introduce me to friends and what they have been doing in camp was well worth taking a day off. Still, I tried to pretend I was annoyed I had to be there to avoid reinforcing the bad behavior.

It turned out to be a very good thing I went, or I would have felt far more left out as I stayed home while J took the kids to the pool both days this weekend. It is not a lack of desire to be with my family as I very much wanted to watch them learn to swim and play with their friends. It is just heat and I do not get along. I tell myself I would go 3 out of 4 times. I tell myself “it is just this time I need to sit out.“

At heart, I fear I am a liar.

I think I will go get some ice cream and wish I did as well in the sun as the flowers in our front yard. I am turning ever more into the anti-superman. The yellow sun saps me rather than strengthens me. Maybe I just need some kryptonite to get me going. Then maybe I could recapture the strength to be outside helping as my son decides to learn how to ride a bike without training wheels and does so in a single day.

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