Category Archives: defining success

A Point on the Horizon Past COVID 19

The rainbow signaled the end of bad times in biblical times. May this one signal the coming of better days once again.

Two doses and time are needed.

We need to be careful and deliberate.  There seems to be a growing sense now there is a vaccine, and we are protected when we get it.  Israel has had issues with people getting infected after the first dose.  It looks like the first vaccine only gives about 50% of the protection needed.  So please don’t go out thinking yourself protected after the first dose.  That is how Israel had a large increase in COVID cases after they started rolling out the vaccines.  From my friend in Israel, they are having problems with people getting the vaccine and thinking they are good to go.  What isn’t in that article is the protection from the second shot is not instant either.  It still seems to take about 2 to 3 weeks after the second shot for full protection to kick in.  That in combination with people thinking they are protected after 1 shot has lead to their recent surge in cases.

In the face of this, we have things like Gov. Hogan demanding MD schools reopen by March 1 or else…However, there isn’t enough of the vaccine to vaccinate the teachers at the moment (even a first dose).  They are being told to try calling again starting Feb 1.  Well, if all of them got their first dose Feb1 and their second dose at the earliest time on Feb 14, they would not get the full protection in time to open March 1.  What do you think are the odds we will get the best case roll out with no days of delay?  This ignores kids as spreaders of the virus to their homes as we learn more about the more contagious variants currently spreading through the U.S. We already lack enough teachers in our schools, especially for special needs children.

We need to be careful.  The end is now in sight, but it is a spec on the horizon, a still distant destination.  At least we now have a direction to progress towards, but we have a long way to to get to heard immunity of 80%.  We need the steady increase of production and distribution of the vaccine.  As the Washington Post editorial today pointed out, Biden’s stated goal of 100 million doses administered in the first 100 days is only 1 million a day.  To reach heard immunity levels of 80%, we would not reach our goal until the summer…of 2022.  The 100 million in 100 days needs to be the start up of an expanding effort to vaccinate our society.    

However, I fear this is another case of the public not understanding the scope of the problem and the project needed to get us to our destination of herd immunity. We hear 100 million and think this is great because it represents a pace faster than we are currently moving. However, this is another case of us not internalizing large numbers.

When I wrote before about our understanding of large numbers, I said the best way I have seen to get us to understand large numbers is either in relationship to another number we kind of understand or as a percent change. So let us look at this aspirational goal in terms of a percent completion towards the goal of herd immunity.

For herd immunity, we need 80 percent of the population to get the shots. We have 330 million people in the U.S. So we need 264 million people to get a total of 528 million doses. If you get rid of that pesky “million” in the doses needed and doses given, suddenly we are left with the daunting thought of progressing 0.18% of the way towards our goal every day. To put it in an easier to digest way, we need 528 days to reach our goal.

I cringe thinking of another year and a half of this covid isolation. Granted, some people have already gotten the vaccine or had COVID 19. So we are not starting our count towards 264 at 0, but we are only a couple steps down the road to where we need to be. We also do not need to make it all the way to 264 before we start reopening. That is simply a safety target. However, we need to make the 100 million in 100 days merely the first step of our run, a step towards getting up to speed. We have a long way to go, and need to be clear our goal is more ambitious than 100 million in 100 days.

So if you have a chance to get us another step towards 264, please take it both for your own health and everyone else’s. Like wearing a mask, it is not just about you. It’s a step towards a healthier society trying to push through COVID19.

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Forty & Ten: Midlife Crisis Averted

Earning this felt like an accomplishment.
Earning this felt like an accomplishment.

Nobody likes to fail. Our human minds are set up to remember our failures, so why would we do something at which we are unlikely to succeed?

The better question is how are we to really know we have done all that we can if we never push ourselves to the point of failure? The problem with failure is the ease with which we see it as an end rather than a measuring stick used for future endeavors to expand our abilities. It is OK to fail so long as we have done all we could at the time.

I still love Samuel Beckett’s “Ever Tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail Again. Fail Better.”

It is with this mindset that I set out on my attempt to run my second half marathon on a beautiful June Saturday morning at Yellowstone. I have to admit, I had many doubts about my ability to complete the race. I had not run that far in two and a half years. I had a stomach virus hit me very hard on Thursday night leaving me dealing with having shit the bed four times until finally, there was just nothing left. I had not had an MS treatment for 2 months as I continued through the washout period needed to switch meds. Finally there were the two reasons my wife gifted me with the trip in the first place: I turned forty and have had MS for ten years.

As I sat there Friday morning thinking about this list of reasons to fail, I realized these are excuses, and we all have excuses. The question is whether those should stop me from trying. I showered for the fourth time that night, drank some more water and went to bed wondering if my stomach would keep me from an item on my bucket list, seeing Old Faithful. Thankfully, my body did what it normally does to viruses; hit it with a tactical nuke. After a dreadful evening, I went downstairs and bought a Gatorade to be followed by 2 more in short order. Then I went with T, my brother in law, to continue sight seeing in Yellowstone for a third day where we got to see Old Faithful along with many of the other cool geysers, springs and pools.

Castle Geyser just keeps going and going for 25 min.  We saw it before and after Old Faithful.  I thought about it while running.
Castle Geyser just keeps going and going for 25 min. We saw it before and after Old Faithful. I thought about it while running.

On day four of our trip, I got up and ran the half marathon. I worried about whether I would be able to finish the 13-mile run at altitudes of 6,000 feet to 6,850 feet, especially when I fell twice in mile 10 because foot drop and a long run over very uneven terrain can do that to me. Still, I finished in 906th place. When I shared the results with my kids, they started to commiserate as if it was sad so many people were faster than I. I told them over 2,700 people finished the race, and I was in the top third of all finishers. I am anything but disappointed with the finish. I meant it when I started, and I mean it now. The challenge was for me to finish, not to finish faster than anyone else. Two hours and twenty-four minutes after I crossed the start line, I succeeded. It was a beautiful trip, and a great reminder that 40 & 10 are just numbers. They are just another measurement of time, and not the most meaningful ones at that.

Thank you T and J for a wonderful trip complete with great memories. I needed the break from reality, and my self esteem needed the half marathon attempt.

Thank you T for showing me around.  I would never have seen as much without you.
Thank you T for showing me around. I would never have seen as much without you.

I got a lot of great photos on the trip, and I will create a page with just those in the next few days.

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